In 2024, there were many errors and misunderstandings in the media's coverage of the real estate market and the economy. Here is a detailed analysis of these incorrect reports.

Misconception 1: "Housing prices will plummet in 2024"

Despite many commentators predicting that rising interest rates and economic uncertainty would lead to a housing price crash, the real estate market showed remarkable resilience. Strong population growth, low unemployment rates, and limited supply meant that housing prices did not experience a significant decline. For example, although the Melbourne market performed poorly, the overall market remained stable.

As can be seen from the chart above, although housing prices in Australia as a whole slightly decreased over the past month (-0.1%) and the past three months (-0.1%), they still rose by 4.9% over the past 12 months.

This indicates that although there were short-term fluctuations in the market, housing prices still maintained a growth trend in the long term. In particular, cities such as Perth and Hobart saw housing price increases of 19.1% and 16.1% respectively over the past 12 months, showing strong market performance.

Misconception 2: "Rising interest rates will kill the market"

While high interest rates did stretch household budgets and limit buyers' borrowing capacity, they did not "kill" the real estate market. Smart buyers adjusted their budgets and used home equity to cope with high interest rates, continuing to participate in the market.

Misconception 3: "Building more houses will solve the housing crisis"

The media often promoted large-scale construction as a simple solution to the housing crisis. However, this approach ignored deep-seated structural issues, such as the need to build livable communities with appropriate infrastructure. The federal government's plan to build an additional 12,000 houses over the next five years did not materialize, and new apartments were mostly located in high-rise towers in inner-city and near-city areas, far from the communities that many Australians aspired to.

As can be seen from the chart above, although population growth (blue line) increased significantly in some periods, housing construction (red line) did not keep pace with population growth. In particular, around 2020, population growth dropped sharply, likely due to border closures and reduced immigration caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, housing construction also failed to adjust in a timely manner, leading to alternating situations of housing supply shortages (green downward arrow) and surpluses (green upward arrow). This shows that simply increasing housing supply cannot solve the housing crisis, and deeper issues such as infrastructure and community construction also need to be considered.

Misconception 4: "Foreign buyers are driving up housing prices"

Although foreign investment often made headlines, its role in driving up housing prices was minimal. The Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975 strictly limited foreign ownership of existing housing, requiring approval from the Australian Treasurer. In 2024, the increase in housing prices was mainly driven by domestic factors such as population growth and supply tightness.

Misconception 5: "Rents will stabilize as new supply comes online"

The media often suggested that new housing supply would ease the rental crisis, but rents continued to rise significantly. The imbalance between population growth and available rental housing, as well as the surge in immigration and investors exiting the market, exacerbated this problem.

As can be seen from the chart above, although new housing supply increased, rents did not stabilize but continued to rise. For example, the annual rent growth rate in Perth was 8.0%, in Hobart it was 6.4%, and in Adelaide it was 6.1%. This shows that the new supply did not effectively ease the tension in the rental market, and rents continued to rise, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand.

Misconception 6: "Population growth has little impact on the market"

Some commentators underestimated the impact of record population growth. Net overseas immigration exceeded expectations, leading to a sharp increase in housing demand. The media failed to link immigration policies with the housing shortage.

As can be seen from the chart above, net overseas immigration (orange bar) increased significantly in regions such as New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (Vic.), and Queensland (Qld), far exceeding natural increase (light blue bar) and net interstate migration (dark blue bar). This shows that population growth, especially overseas immigration, had a significant impact on the demand for housing. For example, net overseas immigration in New South Wales exceeded 140,000 people, while natural increase was only about 30,000 people. This surge in population growth led to strong demand for housing, further driving up housing prices and rents.

Misconception 7: "Regional markets will continue to boom"

During the pandemic, regional markets thrived due to changes in lifestyle and the flexibility of working from home. However, in 2024, people returned to cities for work, amenities, and better infrastructure, and the growth of regional markets stalled.

Misconception 8: "First-home buyers will be completely squeezed out of the market"

Despite facing affordability challenges, many first-home buyers entered the market through government incentives and "rentvesting" strategies. In 2025, there were about 540,000 property transactions in Australia, with about 20% being first-home buyers.

Misconception 9: "The construction industry will recover quickly"

In 2024, the construction industry faced significant challenges such as labor shortages, rising costs, and builder bankruptcies. Although some media optimistically predicted a rapid recovery of the construction industry, the reality was that the industry struggled to keep up with demand, leading to housing supply bottlenecks.

As can be seen from the chart above, although population growth (dark green line) increased significantly in some periods, housing construction (light green line) did not keep pace with population growth. In particular, around 2020, population growth dropped sharply, likely due to border closures and reduced immigration caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, housing construction also failed to adjust in a timely manner, leading to housing supply shortages. This shows that the construction industry did not recover as quickly as the media predicted, and instead faced many challenges that made it difficult to meet market demand.

Misconception 10: "The economy is on the brink of recession"

Although economic growth slowed, strong employment data, government spending, and consumer demand supported economic stability. Australia once again proved its ability to weather economic storms.

Conclusion

In 2024, there were many errors and misunderstandings in the media's coverage of the real estate market and the economy. As an investor, homeowner, or someone aspiring to enter the market, it is important to dig deeper, seek expert advice, and focus on long-term trends rather than being swayed by short-term noise. By staying vigilant and making wise decisions, you will be better equipped to navigate market changes in 2025 and beyond.

（Please note that the data and analysis above are sourced from an article on Michael Yardney's website on March 3, 2025）