U.S. Housing: Pending Home Sales Fall To NearThreeYear Low, Buyers Gain Negotiating Leverage

According to Redfin fourweek rolling data ending September 13 2026, seasonallyadjusted pending home sales (signedbutunclosed contracts) dropped 3.5 % weekoverweek, hitting the lowest reading in nearly three years. Homebuying demand has cooled while housing inventory expanded. Remaining active buyers benefit from more property choices and stronger negotiating power. Median sale prices remain resilient without broadbased sharp declines.

Key Market Metrics (Fourweek period ending Sep 13)

Leading credit & search indicators

 Daily average 30year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.24 % on Sep 16, staying at high level and constraining purchasing power.  Mortgage purchase applications: 1 % WoW, 19 % YoY.  Googletrend searches for “homes for sale” down 15 % YoY; physical tour requests softened, signalling cooling sentiment.

Metrolevel divergence

✅ Metros with strongest YoY price gains: San Francisco (+10.2 %), Milwaukee, Kansas City, Cleveland, St. Louis. ❌ Metros under price pressure: San Jose (5 %), Austin (4.6 %), San Antonio, Seattle, Fort Worth.

Pendingsales declines are concentrated in Seattle, Denver, San Diego, Atlanta and Houston. Florida metro areas including Fort Lauderdale and Miami retain relatively solid buyer demand.

Market Commentary

1. Falling transactions do not equal market crash: While purchase activity weakened materially, national median sale price still rose 2 % yearonyear. Expanded inventory gives buyers bargaining leverage, yet desirable quality assets still attract multipleoffer bidding wars.

2. High mortgage rates act as main headwind: 30year rates persist above 7 %, pricing numerous prospective buyers out. Industry agents warn that if rates fall below 6 %, pentup demand could flood back and reignite competitive bidding.

3. Sellers are resetting expectations: More homeowners accept longer marketing timelines and price concessions; 20.8 % of active listings have implemented price cuts.

4. Extreme market fragmentation: National aggregate numbers mask huge local differences. Westcoast tech hubs and certain SunBelt cities face corrections; selected Midwest markets plus core SanFrancisco keep price momentum.