Redfin U.S. Housing Market Monthly Report: Market Cooling Amid High Rates, Creating Negotiation Windows for Overseas Buyers

According to Redfin seasonallyadjusted data, U.S. pending home sales fell 4 % monthovermonth in September 2026. Excluding the pandemic market freeze in 2020, the reading sits at a relatively low level since 2014. Thirtyyear mortgage rates climbed to 7.28 % by monthend, reducing purchasing power for local owneroccupiers. Yearoveryear pending sales declined across all 50 largest U.S. metro areas. The market has gradually shifted toward a buyer’s market, granting purchasers greater negotiating leverage.

Key National Metrics — September 2026

Metric Commentary

Rising contract cancellation rate, buyers gain more control 14.5 % of signed pending contracts were terminated in September. In the current market, buyers may cancel deals due to inspection findings or budget adjustments. Regional gaps are prominent: Jacksonville, Florida recorded a 19.9 % cancellation rate, while San Francisco only hit 2.8 %, remaining a relatively tight seller’s market.

Growing housing inventory encourages rational pricing Active listings rose 1.2 % monthovermonth, reaching the highest level since March 2020. Homeowners continue listing properties, yet local buyers adopt a waitandsee attitude, leading to inventory accumulation.

Slower price growth opens negotiation room Median sale prices rose merely 1.3 % yearonyear, the weakest reading since February. Median asking prices dipped 0.5 % monthovermonth. 19.8 % of active listings cut asking prices, covering 43 out of the 50 major metro markets.

MetroLevel Divergence

✅ Areas with larger pullback in sales (YoY) Seattle 24.4 %, Los Angeles 16.0 %, San Diego 15.8 %, Anaheim 15.5 %. Highpriced West Coast metros face heavier pressure from high mortgage rates, and Seattle is further impacted by soft local employment.

✅ Markets with stronger resilience (YoY) Montgomery County PA 1.6 %, Pittsburgh 2.1 %, West Palm Beach 2.2 %. These regions demonstrate steadier demand with milder declines.

✅ Contrast in contract cancellation rates  High cancellation (buyer’s market, strong negotiation power): Jacksonville 19.9 %, Tampa 18.8 %, Las Vegas 18.6 %  Low cancellation (seller’s market, limited inventory): San Francisco 2.8 %, Nassau County 4.8 %, San Jose 5.5 %

Market Commentary

Chen Zhao, Redfin Chief Economist: Once mortgage rates move above 7 %, local housing affordability deteriorates, yet new opportunities emerge for buyers. Purchasers are now able to negotiate on sale price, closing costs and repair concessions. Some sellers even offer mortgagerate buydown incentives.

For property vendors: While many local buyers hold back, genuine enduser demand persists. Realistic pricing and flexible terms, such as rate buydowns or closingcost assistance, help accelerate transactions. Overpriced homes tend to stay longer on the market and eventually require price cuts.

Insights for Chinese Overseas Property Investors

The current market adjustment does not equal a market crash. It marks a transition from seller dominance to buyer advantage, creating a window for crossborder asset allocation.

1. Enhanced negotiation power: Buyers have stronger leverage. Overseas investors may secure price discounts, seller contributions toward closing expenses and rate buydowns, helping source bettervalue assets.

2. Location selection matters more than broad market gains: U.S. real estate shows sharp regional divergence. Highcost West Coast cities face heavier downward pressure; parts of the Midwest and Southeast maintain stronger demand stability and rental income, fitting investors targeting steady rental yields.

3. Adopt longterm allocation mindset: High interest rates cap shortterm price appreciation. This market is less ideal for fast flipping, and more suitable as longterm overseas asset diversification to reduce singlemarket risk.

4. Plan all costs upfront: Crossborder property buyers need to prepare for fund transfer rules, U.S. local taxes, property management fees, maintenance and vacancy costs, as well as mortgage restrictions for nonresident purchasers.

Data sources: Redfin September2026 public housingmarket report

Inquiry: If you wish to learn about rental performance of key U.S. investment cities and tax rules for nonresident buyers, book a oneonone overseas property consultation.