FourWeek Ending Oct 18 U.S. Housing Update — 7.4% Mortgage Rates Push Pending Sales To Record Low

Sustained high mortgage rates at 7.4 % keep domestic homebuyers on the sidelines. For the fourweek period ending October 18, pending home sales dropped to the lowest reading since records began in 2021. For the second consecutive week, pending sales declined across all 50 large U.S. metro areas. A contradictory market dynamic emerges: newseller listings start pulling back, yet slow buyer absorption keeps active inventory edging higher, pushing monthsofsupply to 4.4 % — entering balancedmarket territory. Buyers hold more negotiating leverage than seen in more than a decade, while homeprice appreciation fades to very modest positive growth.

Key National Metrics (Fourweek period ending Oct 18, 2026)

Metrolevel divergence

✅ Top YoY price gainers: San Francisco (+12.9 %), New Brunswick (+6.9 %), Detroit (+6.9 %), Pittsburgh (+6.9 %), Cleveland (+5.7 %). SanFrancisco benefits from AIsectordriven market resilience.

❌ Top YoY price decliners: Seattle (6.2 %), San Jose (4.7 %), Orlando (3.8 %), Austin (2.8 %), Charlotte (2.8 %). WestCoast and selected SunBelt metros face price pressure.

❌ Largest YoY pendingsales drops (all 50 metros recorded falls): Seattle (28.8 %), San Diego (25.4 %), Atlanta (23.8 %), Denver (21.0 %), Las Vegas (20.6 %).

✅ Metros with rising new listings: Nashville, San Jose, Newark, San Francisco, Boston.

❌ Sharp newlisting contractions: Atlanta, San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Las Vegas; some SunBelt sellers hold back from bringing homes to market.

Core Market Commentary

1. High monthly housing costs squeeze domestic demand, broad transaction slowdown With mortgage rates anchored at 7.4 %, median monthly payments jump 10.4 % yearonyear and price many local buyers out of the market. It is rare to see pendingsales deterioration across all 50 major metro areas simultaneously.

2. Newlistings moderate but inventory does not retreat Observing sluggish transaction speeds, some homeowners delay listing their assets, pulling down newsupply figures. Even so, properties linger unsold on portals and keep active inventory in slight expansion. Monthsofsupply moves to 4.4 months, landing inside the theoretical balancedmarket range.

3. Strong buyer leverage coexists with price floor support Over onefifth of listings implement price reductions, creating negotiation opportunities for purchasers. Nevertheless national home prices remain marginally positive. Many existing homeowners sit on substantial home equity and resist firesale discounts, establishing a price floor.

Insights for Chinese Overseas Property Investors

1. Distinguish low transaction volume from market crash; seize advantages for cashrich overseas buyers Local mortgagereliant buyers are stepping back, creating negotiation windows for crossborder cash purchasers to pursue price discounts or closingcost concessions. Important context: passive inventory buildup does not equate to systemwide price collapse; equityheavy homeowners have limited incentive for deep distress sales.

2. Metro divergence keeps widening; avoid investment judgements purely from national aggregate data SanFrancisco retains strength underpinned by industry tailwinds, while markets such as Seattle, San Jose and Austin face downward pressure. Submarket duediligence is required; performance can differ drastically even within one single state.

3. Treat newlisting trends as leading market signal Shrinking newlistings signal growing seller caution. Sustained falls in fresh supply will gradually constrain available inventory. Future FederalReserve rate cuts will produce dual forces: improved buyer purchasingpower plus release of pentup ratelocked resale stock; markets will not simply boom in one direction.

4. Separate homesales market fundamentals from rentalmarket fundamentals A deep buyer’s market for property resales does not automatically mean weak rentals. Households locked out of homepurchase will shift toward renting. Always check local vacancy and rentalyield metrics independently for investmentgrade asset screening.

5. Misconception alert: 4.4month supply represents balanced market, not severe oversupply The 45month monthsofsupply benchmark defines U.S. balanced conditions. Current readings have only just entered that band, so do not assume high inventory guarantees steep homeprice corrections.

Data sources: Redfin Oct222026 public weekly report, fourweek dataset ending Oct 18.

Inquiry: If you require U.S. metroselection guidance and fulltaxcost simulation for nonresident buyers, book a oneonone overseasproperty consultation.