Redfin September‑2026 data reveals historic supply‑demand imbalance within U.S. condo markets: condo sellers outnumbered active buyers by 123 %, the widest gap on record since 2013. Active condo‑buyer count fell to a 13‑year low while seller volumes edged higher. By comparison, single‑family‑home sellers exceeded buyers by only 53.7 %, meaning buyer‑market conditions are far more pronounced for condos than overall housing stock. Sun‑Belt metros show extreme seller surplus. Only Nassau County registers as a seller’s market; Chicago, Milwaukee, New Brunswick, Newark and San‑Francisco fall into balanced‑market territory.
Despite strong buyer leverage, recurring condo‑holding‑costs keep rising. Natural‑disaster‑driven insurance‑cost surges hit Florida and Texas hardest; HOA fees plus unexpected special‑assessments can materially erode net investment returns. National median condo sale price dropped ‑0.8 % year‑on‑year, marking the first negative annual reading in five months.
Core National Condo Metrics (Sep‑2026)
| Indicator |
Figure |
YoY Change |
Remarks |
| Sellers surplus over condo buyers |
123% |
+27.5pts |
Record high since 2013; vs 53.7% for single‑family homes |
| Estimated active condo buyers |
88,460 |
-54% |
13‑year historical low |
| Estimated active condo sellers |
197,248 |
+36% |
Moderate growth in available supply |
| Median condo sale price |
$339,000 |
-0.8% |
First YoY decline in five months |
| Median days‑on‑market for condos |
63 days |
+28 days |
Up from 35 days five years ago; much slower turnover |
| Share of condos with price cuts |
37% |
+21pts |
Only 16 % during pandemic boom period |
Market‑definition rule: Buyer’s market = sellers exceed buyers >10 %; Seller’s market = buyers exceed sellers >10 %; Balanced market within ±10 % margin.
Metro‑level divergence
✅ Seller’s‑market condo metro (only one among top‑50 metros)
Nassau County, NY: sellers ‑31.9 % vs buyers. Demand comes from downsizer owner‑occupiers seeking low‑maintenance lifestyles.
⚖️ Balanced condo markets (gap within ±10 %)
Chicago, Milwaukee, New Brunswick, Newark, San‑Francisco. San‑Francisco condo median sale price jumped 20 % YoY supported by AI‑sector‑driven employment growth.
❌ Strong buyer‑market metros (Top‑10 Sun‑Belt seller‑surplus ranking)
- San Antonio (+459 %), 2. Houston (+322 %), 3. Miami (+274 %), 4. Austin (+258 %), 5. Phoenix (+255 %), 6. Nashville (+253 %), 7. Atlanta (+230 %), 8. Dallas (+223 %), 9. Denver (+223 %), 10. Las Vegas (+222 %).
Observation: All top‑10 surplus metros sit in Sun‑Belt regions. Heavy new‑condo supply together with spiking insurance costs suppress local purchasing‑demand in Texas and Florida.
Core Market Commentary
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Deep buyer‑market is demand‑driven rather than buyer‑strength‑driven
Massive condo‑buyer retreat is not caused by stronger purchasing‑power among buyers. High mortgage rates, climbing HOA dues, property‑insurance inflation and surprise special‑assessments push large cohorts of first‑time purchasers out of the condo segment, while seller inventory remains elevated and creates extreme supply‑demand imbalance.
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Holding‑cost risk dominates condo investing; purchase discount is not everything
Hurricane‑exposed Sun‑Belt areas face persistent insurance inflation. Individual buildings may impose large one‑off special‑assessment bills. Even assets acquired at attractive price discounts can see net rental returns heavily eroded by ongoing recurring expenses.
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Extreme market fragmentation; national condo statistics are misleading
Most Sun‑Belt metros are deep buyer‑markets, while Nassau County stays in seller‑market status and San‑Francisco condo values benefit from AI‑industry tailwinds. Condo performance can diverge sharply even within one single U.S. state.
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Condo imbalance far more severe than single‑family‑home segment
Single‑family‑home sellers outnumber buyers by 53.7 %, versus 123 % for condos. Condos offer greater negotiation potential but also carry materially higher ongoing‑holding risks.
Insights for Chinese Overseas Property Investors
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Distinguish negotiation opportunity from intrinsic investment merit; discount does not equal good buy
Sun‑Belt condo buyers enjoy leverage for price or closing‑cost concessions. Nevertheless, always vet building‑level financial health, insurance‑premium history and pending special‑assessment liabilities. Avoid purchasing purely because “there are many sellers so we can bargain hard”.
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Prioritise building‑complex fundamentals above pure location for remote investment
For offshore investors evaluating condos, examine HOA reserve‑fund adequacy, insurance track‑record and past special‑assessment events alongside geographic location. Poor‑financed buildings can trigger unforeseen large out‑of‑pocket costs and destroy investment performance.
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Dual‑risk‑reward assessment for Sun‑Belt condos
Metros such as San Antonio, Houston and Miami show huge seller‑surplus and bargaining upside. At the same time structural insurance‑cost inflation persists in Florida and Texas. Always fully model insurance, HOA fees and potential special‑assessments within cash‑flow projections.
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Manage expectations for balanced / seller‑market condo locations
Markets like San‑Francisco and Nassau County retain solid condo‑buyer demand. Even under national condo‑buyer‑market conditions, scope for large‑scale price concessions remains limited.
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Condos and single‑family homes are separate sub‑markets; do not cross‑infer trends
Supply‑demand gaps differ drastically between condo and single‑family‑home segments. Always reference condo‑specific metrics when screening condo‑grade assets.
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Long‑term allocation preferred; avoid short‑term flipping strategies
Condo markets feature high near‑term volatility plus holding‑cost uncertainties. They are better suited for cross‑border asset allocation over 5‑10+‑year horizons. Short‑term resale exposes investors to extended marketing periods and resale‑discount risks.
Data sources: Redfin Nov‑09‑2026 public condo‑special report, September‑2026 dataset
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2026.11.10
